Latest Brief
Brief No. 1 · 2026
US–China Supply Chain Fragmentation
US–China Supply Chain Fragmentation
and Dynamic Capability Reconfiguration
US-China strategic competition and technology controls represent not merely a reduction in trade, but an institutional shock triggering the structural reconfiguration of global value chains (GVCs). This analysis examines trade flow and supply chain relocation patterns using UN Comtrade, IMF DOTS, and OECD TiVA data, interpreted through the Dynamic Capabilities framework — Sensing, Seizing, and Reconfiguring. Geopolitical fragmentation is shifting the core of corporate competitiveness beyond cost-efficiency-focused operational capabilities toward adaptive reconfiguration capability.
Read Full ArticleKey Data Points
–16%
US–CN Trade Share Decline (2018–2023)
Source: UN Comtrade, IMF DOTS
Source: UN Comtrade, IMF DOTS
+38%
Vietnam & Mexico Import Growth
Source: UN Comtrade
Source: UN Comtrade
~18%
US Average Tariff Rate on China (2024)
Source: USITC Tariff Database
Source: USITC Tariff Database
7%
IMF Estimated Max GDP Loss Scenario
Source: IMF (scenario-based estimate)
Source: IMF (scenario-based estimate)
Theoretical Lens
Dynamic Capabilities Framework
Sensing – Seizing – Reconfiguring
Sensing – Seizing – Reconfiguring
Data Sources: UN Comtrade (accessed 2026), IMF Direction of Trade Statistics (IMF DOTS), OECD TiVA, USITC Tariff Database.
All Insights
Trade Policy
US–China Supply Chain Fragmentation and Dynamic Capability Reconfiguration
US-China supply chain decoupling analyzed through the Dynamic Capabilities framework. Strategic implications at each stage: Sensing, Seizing, and Reconfiguring.
More briefs will be added to this series.